With the 2024 Red Sox season over and an important offseason approaching, it’s time to break down each part of the Red Sox’ roster entering what should be a busy winter for new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. All week, we’ll be running a five-part series analyzing each part of Boston’s roster. Next up, a look at Boston’s starting rotation entering 2025:
WHERE DO THINGS STAND?
PLAYERS UNDER CONTROL:
* RHP Lucas Giolito (controlled through 2025 via players option, due $19M salary in 2025)
* RHP Brayan Bello (controlled through 2030, due $9.17M salary — on CBT — in 2025)
* RHP Garrett Whitlock (controlled through 2028, due $4.675M salary — on CBT — in 2025)
* RHP Tanner Houck (controlled through 2027, projected to earn $4.5M salary in 2025)
* RHP Kutter Crawford (controlled through 2028, projected to earn $3.5M salary in 2025)
* RHP Cooper Criswell (controlled through 2029, projected to earn $1M salary in 2025)
* RHP Quinn Priester (controlled through 2029, projected to earn $780k salary in 2025)
* RHP Richard Fitts (controlled through 2030, projected to earn $760k salary in 2025)
The Red Sox had 13 pitchers make starts for them in 2024 but a group of five — Kutter Crawford (33), Tanner Houck (30), Brayan Bello (30), Nick Pivetta (26) and Cooper Criswell (18) combined to start about 85% of the team’s games. Everyone in that group except Pivetta (a pending free agent) is under control for next season along with Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock, who had season-ending shoulder surgeries, and young righties Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester, who impressed in late September.
While the Red Sox need front-end rotation help (more on that in a minute), they enter the year with a lot of capable arms in the rotation. Barring the inclusion of one of them in a trade, it’s safe to assume Houck, Crawford and Bello will start once again after each making 30+ starts in 2024. Giolito should be healthy for spring training and will get a second chance at being an innings-eater for Boston. Criswell was a capable swingman this season and should be back, though he’ll be out of minor league options in 2025. Fitts and Priester could compete for back-end spots in spring training or serve as top depth options in Worcester. Breslow has built up a lot of depth, even if they’re all right-handed and there’s no true ace on the staff. In that regard, the Red Sox are in an OK spot.
It seems like a fait accompli that Pivetta will sign elsewhere after giving the Red Sox a total of 633 innings since 2020. His situation is very similar to that of Eduardo Rodriguez three years ago: he hits free agency after a long time in the Red Sox rotation where he flashed potential, had plenty of success, but ultimately never hit his ceiling for a prolonged stretch. A team is going to look at Pivetta’s under-the-hood metrics and believe they can turn him into an ace. The overwhelming feeling here is that he won’t be back — which makes sense for a Red Sox team that doesn’t need more mid-rotation types with upside at this juncture.
At this point, Whitlock appears ticketed for the bullpen after yet another lost season, but that decision hasn’t been made yet.
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WHAT’S COMING FROM THE MINORS?
One of the encouraging parts of the final few weeks of the season, with the Red Sox all but out of the race, were the showings of Fitts and Priester, two of Breslow’s most notable trade acquisitions on the pitching side to this point. Fitts had a 1.74 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .603 OPS in four starts. Priester allowed a single run in five innings in the season finale after seeming to put it all together at Triple-A. They’re going to be viewed as interesting arms heading into the winter, either as rotation candidates or trade pieces (even if the Sox want to add pitching, not subtract it, on the larger scale).
Boston’s farm system remains extremely unbalanced. Of SoxProspects’ top 10 minor leaguers in the system, nine are position players and the one pitcher (No. 6 Luis Perales) will miss much of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. There are other arms who took steps forward in 2024 but it’s hard to envision any of them making an impact.
Hunter Dobbins, David Sandlin, Wikelman Gonzalez (who is on the 40-man) and Connelly Early will find themselves in the upper levels of the minors to start next year. Lower in the system are 2024 second-rounder Payton Tolle (yet to make his pro debut), Elmer Rodriguez, Yordanny Monegro, Juan Valera, Hayden Mullins and others. 2025 will be a big year to see how many of the 14 pitchers the Sox took in last year’s draft take steps forward.
Dobbins will almost certainly be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from Rule 5 selection next month.
WHICH MOVES MIGHT THE RED SOX MAKE?
The Red Sox could easily find five pretty good starters out of a mix that includes Houck, Crawford, Bello, Giolito, Criswell, Whitlock, Fitts and Priester. It would be a major surprise if they did. They’re in the same boat as last year in terms of needing a real front-line ace to lead the group. It’s the most pressing need as the winter begins and is expected to be Breslow’s white whale before Opening Day. A rotation where a real top guy takes the ball every five days and upside arms like Houck, Crawford, Bello and others can slot in behind looks like a really, really good one. Of course, it all comes down to opportunity cost.
The top two free agents are Corbin Burnes and Max Fried and each would theoretically fit the Red Sox if they do decide to get back to spending. Burnes is an innings-eating horse who just proved himself in the American League East and seems like the type of personality who would thrive in Boston. Fried has been extremely consistent in Atlanta and though older than Burnes, would give the Red Sox the left-handed ace they need. Blake Snell, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Nick Martinez and potentially Gerrit Cole (opt out) and Japanese ace Roki Sasaki (might be posted) are among the other top arms on the market. But the Red Sox would be wise to keep an eye on the high end of the market and not the middle, where they already have options.
Of course, a trade seems like the more likely path for Boston to acquire a front-end arm. John Henry’s curious recent spending habits and the massive surplus of young position players in the organization would seem to form a perfect storm in which Breslow is set up nicely to try to make a trade like the 2017 deal that brought Chris Sale to Boston for a package headlined by Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. The Red Sox could once again turn to Chicago to try to pry lefty Garrett Crochet from the White Sox; he’s much more likely than presumptive Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who is unlikely to be dealt after Detroit’s miracle run. Breslow could also look to Seattle to try to pry George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller or Miami for Jesús Luzardo or Sandy Alcantara. What about old friend Justin Steele with the Cubs? There are options here, but the cost will be high. Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu will be asked about in these deals along with the “Big Four″ prospects.
*** READ PART II: INFIELDERS ***
The Red Sox would also benefit from adding a cheap veteran arm or two for depth purposes. It can never hurt. Chase Anderson and Brad Keller seemed like nice guys but contending teams have better mop-up guys than that.
FINAL ANALYSIS / PREDICTION:
The Red Sox enter the winter with eight legitimate rotation options and no ace, even if Houck showed that ability in spurts last year. They need quality, not quantity, when it comes to adding to the group this winter and again, it should be the No. 1 priority.
The prediction here is that they do land an ace, come hell or high water. They have to, right? We don’t know the budget (it’s a massive competitive advantage, didn’t you hear?) but if the Red Sox do spend, Burnes and Fried should be top targets. A trade does remain more likely and Crochet, the Miami guys and many others do fit. Breslow has to make something happen.
