Demographic forces are driving distinct waves of innovation across different regions, particularly in areas like automation and robotics. The West, in particular the US, remains more focused on corporate efficiencies and consumer applications, while the East is leapfrogging on automation.
The transformer revolution: Bridging language and vision: The root of all this is the same. Transformer models were designed for natural language processing.
Few expected them to not only master virtually all human and computer languages, but, astonishingly, conquer computer vision too, enabling machines to interpret and understand visual information with unprecedented accuracy. This dual mastery has catalysed explosive growth in autonomous driving and robotics.
Automation anxiety: This is rising in the US, where dockworkers went on strike recently for a ban on automation, apart from wage-related demands. Last year, writers in Hollywood demanded safeguards for their work in the face of AI’s growing capabilities.
Concerns have also been raised by auto unions and truck drivers. These concerns are likely to intensify not just in the US but among workers across the globe.
North Asia’s path so far: Chinese car makers are at the forefront of integrating AI into automotive technology. Baidu and Pony.ai are discussing Level 4 autonomy in some quarters, while numerous players are announcing Level 3 autonomous driving capabilities.
The Chinese government has been promoting the development of autonomous driving technology through various policy initiatives. Over 20 cities in China have policies supporting autonomous driving tests, with over 60 enterprises having obtained test licences.
The pace is no different in robotics. At the recent World Robot Conference in Beijing, 27 different Chinese-designed humanoid robots were showcased. Some were designed for industrial use, while others for calligraphy, food delivery, household chores and even tea making.
Robot baristas in Beijing and Seoul are being welcomed for lowering costs and improving efficiency. A while ago, Korea claimed to have reached a robot density of 1,012 units per 10,000 employees in manufacturing, the world’s highest. Japan has similar tales.
The consumer-producer paradox: We are all both consumers and producers. A consumer in the US or China may desire a driverless vehicle that covers the same distance at half the cost if all else is the same.
However, if machines begin to take away more jobs, income losses may dwarf such consumer gains. Tesla’s Robotaxi, once launched, will soon reveal friction between these forces.
Tension between the benefits of reduced costs and improved services on one hand and the potential workforce impact on the other will likely become a key policy and political issue.
Decisions may be easier if the jobs at risk are in offshore centres or held by immigrants, as domestic constituencies might favour efficiency and cost benefits.
However, challenges will arise when large-scale local jobs are threatened. There are no easy answers and policymakers must remain flexible, recognizing that decisions made at one stage may not remain valid indefinitely.
India must pivot in more ways than one: With millions employed in the IT and ITeS sectors locally and a large number of migrants working abroad, we face challenges too. We cannot ignore or avoid GenAI developments, as once anyone falls behind in this race, climbing back will be difficult.
New technologies have the potential to drive industries, products and services in ever different directions, and any society with growth aspirations would have to adapt to these changes.
We may not be able to do much about the pressure on offshoring or migrant remittances. But they are risks worth thinking about. As discussed before, our technological expertise needs a pivot towards hardware, and one is warmed by developments in recent weeks.
It will be a while before GenAI creates meaningful employment, but it is a field that holds promise in the context of India’s technological and technical expertise.
A big opportunity lies in providing cost-effective innovation solutions to the Global South and cost-conscious segments of the developed world.
As good as the developed world’s innovations are, most are largely unaffordable to a large part of the world. The US, especially, is among the world’s most expensive places to do the business in.
From GenAI-based solutions in healthcare to mobility and indeed every other sector, India has the capacity to offer the vast swathe of humanity useful and cost-effective alternatives in the era of AI innovation.
Retooling and repositioning will be required at the national level, too, if business and industry moats shift the way this analyst expects them to.
