After predicting a win for Vice President Kamala Harris, election forecaster Allan Lichtman saw his winning streak end on Wednesday.
Former President Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, becoming the second American president to serve two non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s.
“Right now after a very long night, I am taking some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for America,” Lichtman, an American University historian, told USA Today.
Referred to by Newsweek as the “Nostradamus” of presidential elections, Lichtman has accurately predicted now nine of the last 11 elections. He was previously incorrect in his 2000 election prediction — that former Vice President Al Gore would win over George W. Bush, who instead succeeded Bill Clinton as president.
Lichtman told followers and supporters on X to stay tuned for a video update on how he got his prediction wrong at 9 p.m. on Thursday via his YouTube channel.
He and his son Samuel Lichtman held a livestream on Election Day watching the results. In the last hour, they analyzed votes and concluded Harris lost.
“Something ridiculous would have to happen…” Lichtman said during the live stream. “I’m still looking for a Pennsylvania miracle but I don’t think we’re going to have it.”
His son said on the livestream that he was “hopeful this whole time” about his father’s prediction.
“I know, you’ve been more hopeful than me,” the father said. “… It is hard to believe.”
Lichtman relies on 13 true-or-false questions called “keys.” Based on these questions, eight true “keys” favored Harris with three false “keys” favoring Trump.
Two “keys” focused on foreign policy failure or success was a toss-up, he said.
Lichtman bases his system “on history,” he said. While robust, he said previously “you can‘t know it in advance that there’d be something so cataclysmic and so unprecedented to break the pattern of history.”
Lichtman’s 13 keys are:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third-party: There is no significant campaign from a third-party or independent candidate.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: No sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by a major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
